Analisis Korelasi Pengaruh Variabel Tenaga Kerja, TIK, dan Share Sektor terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Pulau Sumatera

Abstract

This study analyzes the determinants of economic growth in 10 provinces on the island of Sumatra during 2015–2024, focusing on labor force participation, information and communication technology (ICT) skills, and the sectoral composition of the economy. Economic growth is measured by the annual growth rate of provincial gross regional product (GRP). The independent variables include the labor force participation rate (LFPR), the proportion of the population with ICT skills, and the output shares of agriculture and industry. Using panel data and a fixed-effects model, this research finds that LFPR and the industrial share have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. In contrast, ICT skills and the agricultural share have a negative and significant impact. The negative coefficient for ICT suggests that the diffusion of digital skills has not yet fully translated into productivity gains, particularly in regions with limited supporting infrastructure and weak absorptive capacity. The adverse effect of the agricultural share and the positive contribution of the industrial share are consistent with the structural transformation hypothesis, which holds that economies with a higher reliance on low‑productivity agriculture tend to grow more slowly. The results highlight the importance of labor market quality, digital readiness, and sectoral reallocation in supporting sustainable regional growth in Sumatra.